Search odds results

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in Resource Huts

Medical Hut (Outsider)

  • Location: Medical Hut
  • Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)
Class Searches Nothing Finds First Aid Kit Bottle of Water Bottle of Beer Sharpening Stone Blunt Machete Knife Machete Gold Coin GPS Unit Unspecified
No Scavenging 800 512 288 124 49 19 18 13 22 25 9 9
No Scavenging, FAK only* 320 204 116 56 17 * * * * * * * 43
Scavenging 377 198 179 74 26 8 11 14 17 10 14 5

*Note: Starred row only includes first aid kits, water bottles, and a total of non-medical finds, so it can be used when computing overall success rate or water find rate, but not to investigate gold coin find rate (for example).

Medical Hut (Outsider)


Ammo Hut (Outsider)

  • Location: Ammo Hut
  • Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)
Class Searches Nothing Finds Rifle Bullet Rifle Box of Bullets Bottle of Water Bottle of Beer Sharpening Stone Blunt Machete Knife Machete Gold Coin GPS Unit
No Scavenging 375 238 137 41 17 10 22 5 4 5 15 12 5 1
Scavenging 19 7 12 2 0 2 1 1 0 1 3 2 0 0


Finds with Bullets Total Bullets Found
Class Searches Nothing Rifle Bullet Box Bullets Rifle Loose in Boxes in Rifles
No Scavenging 375 238 41 10 17 41 31 16
Scavenging 19 7 2 2 0 2 8 0
Ammo Hut (Outsider)


Herbal Hut (Native)

  • Location: Herbal Hut
  • Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)
Class Searches Nothing Finds Healing Herbs Unspecified Item Poison Dart Bundle Darts Sharpening Stone Blunt Machete Knife Machete Gold Coin Blowpipe
No Scavenging 416 270 146 65 10 6 8 8 15 12 16 6
No Scavenging, Herbs only* 68 45 23 13 10 * * * * * * * *
Scavenging 160 79 81 46 1 3 2 2 3 6 14 4
Scavenging, Herbs only* 68 35 33 21 12 * * * * * * * *

*Note: Starred rows only include healing herbs and a total of non-healing herbs finds, so they can be used when computing overall success rate or herb find rate, but not to investigate gold coin find rate (for example).

Finds with Darts Total Darts Found
Class Searches Nothing Poison Dart Bundle Darts Blowpipe Loose in Bundles in Blowpipes
No Scavenging 416 270 10 6 6 10 26 3
Scavenging 160 79 1 3 4 1 17 0


Dart Hut (Native)

  • Location: Dart Hut
  • Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)
Class Searches Nothing Finds Poison Dart Bundle Darts Sharpening Stone Blunt Machete Knife Machete Gold Coin Blowpipe
No Scavenging 49 28 21 7 6 1 1 1 5
Scavenging 60 34 26 9 5 1 2 6 3


Finds with Darts Total Darts Found
Class Searches Nothing Poison Dart Bundle Darts Blowpipe Loose in Bundles in Blowpipes
No Scavenging 49 28 7 6 5 7 32 2
Scavenging 60 34 9 5 3 9 13 1


Large Cabin (Shipwreck)

  • Location: Large Cabin
  • Last Collated: Not Enough Data, 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)


Armoury (Shipwreck)

  • Location: Armoury
  • Last Collated: Not Enough Data, 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)


Hold (Shipwreck)

  • Location: Hold
  • Last Collated: Not Enough Data, 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)


Galley (Shipwreck)

  • Location: Galley
  • Last Collated: Not Enough Data, 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)


inside other Special Locations

Ruins

  • Location: Temple Ruins (south of Shipwreck)
  • Location: Riverside Ruins (north of York)
  • Location: Abandoned Jail
  • Last Collated: Not Enough Data, 06:27, 2 June 2006 (BST)

It is likely that the different Ruins have different item find rates. The Temple Ruins near the shipwreck are known to have Gems, but the Riverside Ruins near York do not appear to have any worthwhile items.

When recording searches inside Ruins, include GPS coordinates, description, and room number (in-game, room buttons are sequential, but are currently not numbered).

outdoor General Locations

Beach

  • Location: Beach
  • Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)
Class Searches Nothing Finds Bite from Crab Bottle of Beer Crab Piece of Driftwood Gold Coin
No Scavenging 496 440 56 2 3 5 30 16
Scavenging 190 167 23 1 1 0 13 8
Beach


Grassland

  • Location: Grassland
  • Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)
Class Searches Nothing Finds Bite from Snake Snake Healing Herbs
No Scavenging 136 120 16 2 8 6
Scavenging 0 0 0 0 0 0
Grassland


Jungle

Jungle data last collated on April 10, 2006 (see Search odds condensed (results)). Jungle outcomes may depend on jungle density and other factors.

Swamp

See worthless locations below.

outdoor Special Locations

at a Tree

  • Location: Tree
  • Last Collated: Tycho44 04:55, 2 June 2006 (BST)
Class Searches Nothing Find p E
No Scavenging 236 102 134 56.8% ±6.4%
Scavenging 81 34 47 58.0% ±10.8%

The above table is collapsed across all Tree variants and Jungle densities. Note that if p is independent of Tree variant and Jungle density, then we have enough data to reasonably conclude that Scavenging does not contribute +50% to Tree searches (although +33%, from 1/2 to 2/3 find rate, is plausible, as is no effect at all).

Class Density Type Searches Nothing Success
No Scavenging * Mango 20 9 11
No Scavenging * Poison 50 23 27
No Scavenging d0 Banana 30 14 16
No Scavenging d0 Berry 8 2 6
No Scavenging d0 Mango 29 12 17
No Scavenging d3 Banana 33 12 21
No Scavenging d4 Berry 10 5 5
No Scavenging d4 Poison 36 21 15
Scavenging d0 Poison 36 15 21
Scavenging d4 Poison 45 19 26

*Note: Jungle density not recorded for starred searches.

Outsider Camp

Native Camp

Ruins

Worthless Locations

If N searches has turned up 0 successful results (useful items), when in fact there is an underlying probability p of getting something useful, then the likelihood of our sample data is given by BINOMDIST(0,N,p,FALSE). When likelihood falls below 2.5%, it is reasonable to reject probabilities p or greater.

For example, we would expect the underlying find rate in the swamp (50 unsuccessful searches) to be at most 7.1%.

Worthless Locations


The error bar does not show the largest outcome of your 60 AP search. Instead, it shows the largest true underlying find rate that is still supported by experimental data. For example, this means that the underlying find rate in the swamp might be as high as 7%, in which case your 60 AP swamp search would often yield 3+ items (although the error bar stops at 1.4 items).

in Trading Hut

  • Location: in Trading Hut
  • Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)
Class Searches Nothing Finds Rejected p
No Scavenging 21 21 0 >16.2%


Gray Mountain Path

  • Location: Mountain Path
  • Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)
Class Searches Nothing Broken Knife Rejected p
No Scavenging 25 24 1 >13.7%

Note: This location is the gray "transit square" when climbing up to the mountain ledge, not the jungle squares on the ledge itself.


Gray Cave

  • Location: Cave
  • Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)
Class Searches Nothing Broken Knife Rejected p
No Scavenging 42 41 1 >8.4%


Gray Tunnel

  • Location: Tunnel
  • Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)
Class Searches Nothing Broken Knife Rejected p
No Scavenging 47 46 1 >7.6%


Swamp

  • Location: Swamp
  • Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)
Class Searches Nothing Finds Rejected p
No Scavenging 50 50 0 >7.1%

Note: Swamps require 3AP per search. Kudos to fitzcarraldo for his efforts.


Water

  • Location: Water
  • Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)
Class Searches Nothing Broken Knife Rejected p
No Scavenging 110 99 11 >3.3%


Deep Water

  • Location: Deep Water
  • Last Collated: Not Enough Data, 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)
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