Search odds results

in Resource Huts

Medical Hut (Outsider)

• Location: Medical Hut
• Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)

Class	Searches	Nothing	Finds	First Aid Kit	Bottle of Water	Bottle of Beer	Sharpening Stone	Blunt Machete	Knife	Machete	Gold Coin	GPS Unit	Unspecified
No Scavenging	800	512	288	124	49	19	18	13	22	25	9	9
No Scavenging, FAK only*	320	204	116	56	17	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	43
Scavenging	377	198	179	74	26	8	11	14	17	10	14	5

*Note: Starred row only includes first aid kits, water bottles, and a total of non-medical finds, so it can be used when computing overall success rate or water find rate, but not to investigate gold coin find rate (for example).

Medical Hut (Outsider)

Ammo Hut (Outsider)

• Location: Ammo Hut
• Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)

Class	Searches	Nothing	Finds	Rifle Bullet	Rifle	Box of Bullets	Bottle of Water	Bottle of Beer	Sharpening Stone	Blunt Machete	Knife	Machete	Gold Coin	GPS Unit
No Scavenging	375	238	137	41	17	10	22	5	4	5	15	12	5	1
Scavenging	19	7	12	2	0	2	1	1	0	1	3	2	0	0

			Finds with Bullets			Total Bullets Found
Class	Searches	Nothing	Rifle Bullet	Box Bullets	Rifle	Loose	in Boxes	in Rifles
No Scavenging	375	238	41	10	17	41	31	16
Scavenging	19	7	2	2	0	2	8	0

Ammo Hut (Outsider)

Herbal Hut (Native)

• Location: Herbal Hut
• Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)

Class	Searches	Nothing	Finds	Healing Herbs	Unspecified Item	Poison Dart	Bundle Darts	Sharpening Stone	Blunt Machete	Knife	Machete	Gold Coin	Blowpipe
No Scavenging	416	270	146	65		10	6	8	8	15	12	16	6
No Scavenging, Herbs only*	68	45	23	13	10	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Scavenging	160	79	81	46		1	3	2	2	3	6	14	4
Scavenging, Herbs only*	68	35	33	21	12	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*

*Note: Starred rows only include healing herbs and a total of non-healing herbs finds, so they can be used when computing overall success rate or herb find rate, but not to investigate gold coin find rate (for example).

			Finds with Darts			Total Darts Found
Class	Searches	Nothing	Poison Dart	Bundle Darts	Blowpipe	Loose	in Bundles	in Blowpipes
No Scavenging	416	270	10	6	6	10	26	3
Scavenging	160	79	1	3	4	1	17	0

Dart Hut (Native)

• Location: Dart Hut
• Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)

Class	Searches	Nothing	Finds	Poison Dart	Bundle Darts	Sharpening Stone	Blunt Machete	Knife	Machete	Gold Coin	Blowpipe
No Scavenging	49	28	21	7	6	1		1		1	5
Scavenging	60	34	26	9	5	1			2	6	3

			Finds with Darts			Total Darts Found
Class	Searches	Nothing	Poison Dart	Bundle Darts	Blowpipe	Loose	in Bundles	in Blowpipes
No Scavenging	49	28	7	6	5	7	32	2
Scavenging	60	34	9	5	3	9	13	1

Large Cabin (Shipwreck)

• Location: Large Cabin
• Last Collated: Not Enough Data, 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)

Armoury (Shipwreck)

• Location: Armoury
• Last Collated: Not Enough Data, 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)

Hold (Shipwreck)

• Location: Hold
• Last Collated: Not Enough Data, 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)

Galley (Shipwreck)

• Location: Galley
• Last Collated: Not Enough Data, 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)

inside other Special Locations

Ruins

• Location: Temple Ruins (south of Shipwreck)
• Location: Riverside Ruins (north of York)
• Location: Abandoned Jail

• Last Collated: Not Enough Data, 06:27, 2 June 2006 (BST)

It is likely that the different Ruins have different item find rates. The Temple Ruins near the shipwreck are known to have Gems, but the Riverside Ruins near York do not appear to have any worthwhile items.

When recording searches inside Ruins, include GPS coordinates, description, and room number (in-game, room buttons are sequential, but are currently not numbered).

outdoor General Locations

Beach

• Location: Beach
• Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)

Class	Searches	Nothing	Finds	Bite from Crab	Bottle of Beer	Crab	Piece of Driftwood	Gold Coin
No Scavenging	496	440	56	2	3	5	30	16
Scavenging	190	167	23	1	1	0	13	8

Beach

Grassland

• Location: Grassland
• Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)

Class	Searches	Nothing	Finds	Bite from Snake	Snake	Healing Herbs
No Scavenging	136	120	16	2	8	6
Scavenging	0	0	0	0	0	0

Grassland

Jungle

Jungle data last collated on April 10, 2006 (see Search Odds Condensed (results)). Jungle outcomes may depend on jungle density and other factors.

Swamp

See worthless locations below.

outdoor Special Locations

at a Tree

• Location: Tree
• Last Collated: Tycho44 04:55, 2 June 2006 (BST)

Class	Searches	Nothing	Find	p	E
No Scavenging	236	102	134	56.8%	±6.4%
Scavenging	81	34	47	58.0%	±10.8%

The above table is collapsed across all Tree variants and Jungle densities. Note that if p is independent of Tree variant and Jungle density, then we have enough data to reasonably conclude that Scavenging does not contribute +50% to Tree searches (although +33%, from 1/2 to 2/3 find rate, is plausible, as is no effect at all).

Class	Density	Type	Searches	Nothing	Success
No Scavenging	*	Mango	20	9	11
No Scavenging	*	Poison	50	23	27
No Scavenging	d0	Banana	30	14	16
No Scavenging	d0	Berry	8	2	6
No Scavenging	d0	Mango	29	12	17
No Scavenging	d3	Banana	33	12	21
No Scavenging	d4	Berry	10	5	5
No Scavenging	d4	Poison	36	21	15
Scavenging	d0	Poison	36	15	21
Scavenging	d4	Poison	45	19	26

*Note: Jungle density not recorded for starred searches.

Worthless Locations

If N searches has turned up 0 successful results (useful items), when in fact there is an underlying probability p of getting something useful, then the likelihood of our sample data is given by BINOMDIST(0,N,p,FALSE). When likelihood falls below 2.5%, it is reasonable to reject probabilities p or greater.

For example, we would expect the underlying find rate in the swamp (50 unsuccessful searches) to be at most 7.1%.

Worthless Locations

The error bar does not show the largest outcome of your 60 AP search. Instead, it shows the largest true underlying find rate that is still supported by experimental data. For example, this means that the underlying find rate in the swamp might be as high as 7%, in which case your 60 AP swamp search would often yield 3+ items (although the error bar stops at 1.4 items).

in Trading Hut

• Location: in Trading Hut
• Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)

Class	Searches	Nothing	Finds	Rejected p
No Scavenging	21	21	0	>16.2%

Gray Mountain Path

• Location: Mountain Path
• Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)

Class	Searches	Nothing	Broken Knife	Rejected p
No Scavenging	25	24	1	>13.7%

Note: This location is the gray "transit square" when climbing up to the mountain ledge, not the jungle squares on the ledge itself.

Gray Cave

• Location: Cave
• Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)

Class	Searches	Nothing	Broken Knife	Rejected p
No Scavenging	42	41	1	>8.4%

Gray Tunnel

• Location: Tunnel
• Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)

Class	Searches	Nothing	Broken Knife	Rejected p
No Scavenging	47	46	1	>7.6%

Swamp

• Location: Swamp
• Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)

Class	Searches	Nothing	Finds	Rejected p
No Scavenging	50	50	0	>7.1%

Note: Swamps require 3AP per search. Kudos to fitzcarraldo for his efforts.

Water

• Location: Water
• Last Collated: Tycho44 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)

Class	Searches	Nothing	Broken Knife	Rejected p
No Scavenging	110	99	11	>3.3%

Deep Water

• Location: Deep Water
• Last Collated: Not Enough Data, 00:01, 1 June 2006 (BST)