Difference between revisions of "Search odds condensed (results)"

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(mountain swamp water ocean, added open issues.)
(new results combined from 1st and 2nd)
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Results are from [[Search Odds Condensed]]. Results are rounded to the nearest 1%.
 
Results are from [[Search Odds Condensed]]. Results are rounded to the nearest 1%.
  
===Notes===
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'''Note'''
Feel free to leave any analysis or thoughts, this initial data is from trial 1 of the [[Search Odds Condensed]]. There seems to be so far no noticable difference between the different jungle types, but this was made with limited data, 35 seperate search sets in different places leaving some holes in the data. Any data that was left with nothing found was left out this time, but will be used for the next set of results. Feel free to add to the data to be able to gleen more from the results. Trial 2 is on, which will combine all data, the form was changed to make it simpler to fill in data and to import.
+
Feel free to leave any analysis or thoughts, this initial data is from trial 1 and 2 of the [[Search Odds Condensed]].Any data that was left with nothing found was left out this time, but will be used for the next set of results. Feel free to add to the data to be able to gleen more  
 +
from the results.  
  
 
===Open issues===
 
===Open issues===
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===Analysis===
 
===Analysis===
Difficult to gleen much, other than at first glance it seems to illustrate a different rate in the jungle. D3 and d4 areas both had approximately 65 searches, with a ~20% success rate, while d9 with ~150 came out to ~10% success rate. With that said, d0 data had approximately 200 search events and did not show an increase in the find rate versus the d9 data. So, really, more data is needed.  
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More data is needed, if you would like to help, please enter data at [[Search Odds Condensed]].
  
==Beach ............................................................................... Grassland==
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Further analysis is coming, but feel free to add your thoughts.
searches / successes : 53/7 ............................................................................... 86/8<br clear="both" />
 
[[image:searchoddscondensed-results-beach.jpg|450px|beach]][[image:searchoddscondensed-results-grassland.jpg|450px|grassland]]
 
  
  
==Jungle d0 ............................................................................... d1==
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==Comparison==
searches / successes : 191/28 ............................................................................... 67/8<br clear="both" />
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The comparison includes two types of data, both the probability of finding nothing (orange) and the number of searches performed (maroon)
[[image:searchoddscondensed-results-d0.jpg|450px|d0]][[image:searchoddscondensed-results-d1.jpg|450px|d1]]
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-comparison.jpg|250px|thumb|left|Data comparison]]
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<br style="clear: left"/>
  
 +
===Comparative Jungle Analysis===
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There seems to be so far no linear difference between the jungle types that would demonstrate the concept that it '''could''' be easier to find items in d0 than in d9. But, in fact, the data seems to illustrate that the best area to find something is in d4. Assuming it is not a case of RNG ''luck'', then perhaps the concepts driving the data is this:
  
==Jungle d3==
 
searches / successes : 77/18<br clear="both" />
 
[[image:searchoddscondensed-results-d3.jpg|450px|d3]]
 
  
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:''If one clears everything, then there is little left to find. Alternately if one clears very little, the obstructions make it difficult to find anything.''
  
==Jungle d4 ............................................................................... d5==
 
searches / successes : 63/14 ............................................................................... na<br clear="both" />
 
[[image:searchoddscondensed-results-d4.jpg|450px|d4]]
 
  
 +
The data doesn't seem to be erroneous, as the slope of the line, from d4-d1, indicates the other data correlates to this effect. But, the number of searches is really not great enough to ascertain that the data is very accurate. Also, the data d5-9 does not seem to correlate to a bell curve effect. In the end, it will simply take more searching to verify.
  
==Jungle d6 ............................................................................... d7==
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'''NOTE''', any special cases where the data set was in ruins or a village, or with a tree or hut in the area have not been included with the jungle data. The special cases and combinations will come later.
searches / successes : 16/0 ............................................................................... 30/0<br clear="both" />
 
  
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==Beach -- Grassland -- Mountain -- Swamp ==
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-beach.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Beach]]
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-grassland.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Grassland]]
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-NA.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Mountain]]
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-NA.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Swamp]]
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<br style="clear: left"/>
  
==Jungle d8 ............................................................................... d9==
 
searches / successes : 35/4 ............................................................................... 140/17<br clear="both" />
 
[[image:searchoddscondensed-results-d8.jpg|450px|d8]][[image:searchoddscondensed-results-d9.jpg|450px|d9]]
 
  
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==Jungle==
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This shows all the jungle data combined d0-10
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-dall.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Jungle results combined]]
 +
<br style="clear: left"/>
  
==Mountain ............................................................................... Swamp ==
 
searches / successes : na ............................................................................... 4/0 ''NOTE: 3AP/search''<br clear="both" />
 
  
==Water ..................................... Deep Water .......................................... Ocean ==
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===Jungle d0-10===
searches / successes : na ..................................... na .......................................... na
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-d0.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Jungle d0]]
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-d1.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Jungle d1]]
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-d2.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Jungle d2]]
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-d3.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Jungle d3]]
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-d4.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Jungle d4]]
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<br style="clear: left"/>
 +
 
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-d5.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Jungle d5]]
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-d6.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Jungle d6]]
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-d7.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Jungle d7]]
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-d8.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Jungle d8]]
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-d9.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Jungle d9]]
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-d10.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Jungle d10]]
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<br style="clear: left"/>
 +
 
 +
 
 +
==Water -- Deep Water -- Ocean ==
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-NA.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Water]]
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-NA.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Deep Water]]
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[[Image:searchoddscondensed-results-NA.jpg|150px|thumb|left|Ocean]]
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<br style="clear: left"/>

Revision as of 09:33, 9 March 2006

Results are from Search Odds Condensed. Results are rounded to the nearest 1%.

Note Feel free to leave any analysis or thoughts, this initial data is from trial 1 and 2 of the Search Odds Condensed.Any data that was left with nothing found was left out this time, but will be used for the next set of results. Feel free to add to the data to be able to gleen more from the results.

Open issues

  1. Are the odds different for differing jungle types? -- fitzcarraldo|T 11:16, 3 March 2006 (GMT)
  2. Need to check mountain caves versus trails, otherwise they will all fall under mountains. -- fitzcarraldo|T 11:16, 3 March 2006 (GMT)
  3. At this time data from being within huts are considered d0 resuls. As well eventual jungle squares with trees have not been broken out. need to break out. -- fitzcarraldo|T 11:16, 3 March 2006 (GMT)
  4. Do results differ on d0 within village limits to d0 just outside?
  5. If there is a tree on a jungle square, can those squares be cleared of jungle? does it have any effect on results? -- fitzcarraldo|T 11:16, 3 March 2006 (GMT)

Analysis

More data is needed, if you would like to help, please enter data at Search Odds Condensed.

Further analysis is coming, but feel free to add your thoughts.


Comparison

The comparison includes two types of data, both the probability of finding nothing (orange) and the number of searches performed (maroon)

Data comparison


Comparative Jungle Analysis

There seems to be so far no linear difference between the jungle types that would demonstrate the concept that it could be easier to find items in d0 than in d9. But, in fact, the data seems to illustrate that the best area to find something is in d4. Assuming it is not a case of RNG luck, then perhaps the concepts driving the data is this:


If one clears everything, then there is little left to find. Alternately if one clears very little, the obstructions make it difficult to find anything.


The data doesn't seem to be erroneous, as the slope of the line, from d4-d1, indicates the other data correlates to this effect. But, the number of searches is really not great enough to ascertain that the data is very accurate. Also, the data d5-9 does not seem to correlate to a bell curve effect. In the end, it will simply take more searching to verify.

NOTE, any special cases where the data set was in ruins or a village, or with a tree or hut in the area have not been included with the jungle data. The special cases and combinations will come later.

Beach -- Grassland -- Mountain -- Swamp

Beach
Grassland
Mountain
Swamp



Jungle

This shows all the jungle data combined d0-10

Jungle results combined



Jungle d0-10

Jungle d0
Jungle d1
Jungle d2
Jungle d3
Jungle d4


Jungle d5
Jungle d6
Jungle d7
Jungle d8
Jungle d9
Jungle d10



Water -- Deep Water -- Ocean

Water
Deep Water
Ocean